Wednesday, November 4, 2015

US/UK now say a bomb probably downed Russian jet, after all

Even as Russia and Egypt haven't said so, the US apparently believes it most likely that ISIS planted a bomb on the doomed Russian jetliner, while the UK has also come out in support of this theory.

While it's true that a US satellite detected a "heat flash" in the moment of the plane's sudden descent, this is completely inadequate to conclude that it was a bomb which caused it. If it was a mechanical failure, however, that doesn't preclude sabotage. Have US intelligence agents already gained access to some key investigation forensics that they can't disclose? Despite tensions with Washington since the failure of the Arab spring and the retrenchment of the military to power, Egypt remains a key American ally that probably wouldn't hesitate to have US intelligence involved in this investigation on account of concerns over ISIS - notwithstanding the potential awkwardness of joining Russia's own intelligence efforts on this case.

On the other hand, a Daily Beast article questions why UK Prime Minister David Cameron spoke as if a bomb is in fact the most credible explanation of the tragedy without any apparent evidence, at least publicly available, to back it up. And the Egyptian government itself was surprised by Cameron's remarks.

Whatever ends up being confirmed as the culprit, this disaster has already brought into focus the extremist presence in the Sinai that makes the bomb theory particularly believable.

Condolences and prayers to the families of the 224 victims.

More positive news: Syrian troops regain the southern supply route to Aleppo from ISIS, while US-backed forces make their own advances against ISIS in Iraq.

No comments:

Post a Comment