Iran threatens to pull out of peace talks as Al-Nusra forms at least a temporary alliance with ISIS

Citing Saudi intransigence, Tehran has threatened to leave the Syria peace talks. Should Iran pull out, that would almost ensure the continuation, perhaps even escalation, of the Syrian civil war, especially the virtual proxy war raging between Saudi Arabia and Iran not only in that country, but also in Yemen and to a small extent in Iraq.

The seesaw conflict continues. ISIS has captured an important town in central Homs province, while the Syrian army made some gains recovering the supply lines to Aleppo.

As my blog suggested, last week's thrusts by ISIS and Al Qaeda were in fact coordinated against the dramatic resurgence of the common threat from pro-Assad forces:

The triple attack on Syrian opposition forces in Aleppo has pushed the Islamic State group and al Qaeda's Jabhat al-Nusra to coordinate attacks and even, in some cases, work with rebel groups they previously fought.

To halt pro-regime advances, last week Jabhat al-Nusra launched an attack on the western front from Bilal al-Hus mountain range. In a simultaneous operation, ISIS fighters attacked the eastern frontline targeting a major supply road in hopes of cutting off the regime’s reinforcements.

Further:

Nusra and ISIS are working together in Aleppo, not because of an ideological partnership between the two militant groups, but rather political expediency -- a temporary military alliance to survive the regime’s sizable attack on their individual territories, which “forced them to retreat under heavy airstrikes by Russian warplanes,” Mustafa Suleiman, a rebel fighter in Aleppo told ARA News.

Of course, as Ayman al-Zawahri's recording indicates, given the scale of the new threat from the Fatima coalition of Russia, Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Hezbollah, this marriage of convenience between Al Nusra and ISIS may well solidify into something more substantive.

Perhaps last week's setbacks weren't so bad for the Axis of Fatima, after all: Assad, Putin, and Iran may have determined that given their limited resources, they should focus on retaking Aleppo and securing at least one major supply route to it, even if it means conceding some less populated areas to ISIS, Al-Nusra, and other rebels between Aleppo and Damascus.

Like Assad, Russia clearly wants ISIS (and Al-Nusra) to gain at the expense of moderate rebels, squeezing their operating room between the truly hardcore takfiris and the Fatima axis, effectively compelling them to choose between Assad and ISIS. Moscow has already hosted talks with the secular FSA; it may be striving to make similar overtures to less extreme Islamists such as Ahrar al-Sham.

Meanwhile, not at all surprisingly, the new US coalition centered on the Kurdish YPG militia in northeastern Syria is struggling to get off the ground.

And finally, although ISIS' claim of responsibility for Saturday's tragic Russian jetliner crash over the Sinai in Egypt has been dismissed, especially given the current geopolitical climate of the Mideast, terrorism can't be ruled out yet, meaning Western airlines won't be flying over the Sinai until the investigation finds the cause.