Thursday, November 19, 2015

Russian jet wasn't intended target of ISIS bomb: providential switch?

ISIS is now claiming that the soda can bomb it used to bring down the Russian jetliner over Sinai was originally intended for a western plane, but apparently some unexpected turn of events got it diverted to Metrojet Flight 9268:
Meanwhile, ISIS explained it had a different target in mind.
“And so after having discovered a way to compromise the security at the Sharm el-Sheikh International Airport and resolving to bring down a plane belonging to a nation in the American-led Western coalition against the Islamic State, the target was changed to a Russian plane,” the message read.
Perhaps this was a providential switch: it has brought Russia and ISIS into more direct confrontation and thus drawn Moscow closer to Washington and European capitals; though it's probable that most Russian airstrikes will still hit predominantly non-ISIS targets, at least it's now undeniable that Putin's at war with the same enemy as France and the US-led coalition as a whole.

Though it's still too early to tell if this will be a sustained escalation, for three days now the Kremlin has been unleashing some of its best long-range air and missile weaponry against ISIS, as well as joining intensified coalition efforts to degrade the group's oil assets. It's already a far cry from the early days of the campaign last month, when Russian attacks on ISIS were so few and far between that they seemed just for show, or to live-test their Caspian flotilla's cruise missiles.

Meanwhile, Moscow seems to be emphasizing to Western and Sunni Muslim powers on the other side of the negotiations at Vienna that just because it agrees that Assad can't stay on to lead a reunified Syrian state in the future doesn't mean he should be undermined now if the common enemy that all must join forces to defeat is ISIS.

Behind the scenes, it's likely Putin has been telling Assad that the manner in which he contributes to his own nation's stabilization - striking deals with moderates and banding together against extremists - will determine his own political future. If Assad does well, he can relinquish power with enough protection from his Alawite power base that it wouldn't threaten him personally; if he does exceedingly well, he may even gain such a long-term rapport with the Alawites that even if he can't win a national election, his own sect (and perhaps other minorities such as Christians) will get behind him to represent them under a new constitution.

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