Syrian updates: despite setbacks, it is Putin's and Assad's to lose now

Both Al-Nusra and ISIS have apparently shifted their focus to cutting the Syrian regime's fragile supply lines from the solidly government-held south to the embattled north.

A YouTube video report indicates that Al-Nusra is trying to sever one such road linking Latakia and Hama provinces, thus threatening recently beefed up regime control of its sector of the country's northwest.

Similarly, the Syrian government's main supply route to the key northern city of Aleppo - now a renewed focal point of the whole conflict - has been compromised by ISIS and is being contested for recapture by Damascus.

The battle for Aleppo pits each of the main camps - Syrian regime, rebel/Al-Nusra/Al-Qaeda, and ISIS - against one another in a three-way fight over the nerve center of the country's north; the regime's ability to supply its forces in the area will determine the speed with which it pacifies it. This is very much Assad's and Putin's fight to lose: until the loss of the road to ISIS, they had already effectively choked off every artery that the rebels within Aleppo itself relied on, and with their complete domination of the skies, neither ISIS nor the rebels can hold open positions for long. But the Syrian army can still be drained of precious strength and slowed down by surprise attacks in soft areas under its putative control, and that's what both ISIS and Al-Nusra seem to be trying.

The more hardcore rebel groups led by Al-Nusra may also find it more appealing to effectively work in tandem with ISIS at this juncture, depending on how much progress Damascus makes how quickly.

Crucially, it seems pro-regime militias are playing an important role consolidating government areas in the north; they are mentioned both in the aforementioned YouTube video and in updates on the unofficial Syrian army Facebook page. They not only fill the defensive gaps against ISIS and Al-Nusra once government units have reestablished nominal control of sectors, but seem to provide valuable local intelligence and nonlethal, including logistical, support for regular army offensives.

As I mentioned, despite various setbacks and inevitable losses, it is now Putin's and Assad's fight to lose. May the Axis of Fatima proceed with prudence, caution, and humility.