Tuesday, October 27, 2015

Iran has been invited to the newest round of Syria peace talks Friday in Vienna, a potentially significant development that will increase the chances of a successful political settlement.

One must hope and pray that moderate voices in Tehran will win out, and not only will Iran attend these talks, but it won't come with such demands that Turkey and especially Saudi Arabia, who see the mere fact of Iranian participation as a concession on their parts, will be hardened in their opposition to Assad.

Two weeks ago, an article noted that Russia's intervention on Assad's behalf could wrest the Syrian war out of Iran's control. Indeed, this is what Ayatollah Khamenei must be wrestling with in deciding whether or not his nation should attend the Vienna peace talks: such a move would signal to the world that his clerical regime's hardline religious war policy has been tempered to some degree by Westphalian-sovereignty realpolitik among its more pragmatic elements.

It's likely that Khamenei, like Assad, had originally hoped that Putin's intervention would afford them the chance to actually win back Syria militarily; but now all signs indicate that even if Putin thinks this is feasible, he's more willing to settle for a much cheaper partial success here and now that secures Russia's key interests; if Khamenei and Assad still want their resounding military reconquest with Russian air cover, they'd better hope and pray that the Syrian rebels and their Turkish, Saudi, and US sponsors are so stupid that they still won't concede anything in the negotiations short of Assad's immediate exit from power.

Russia, for its part, is serious about finding moderate Syrian opposition to work together with against ISIS. This most certainly isn't music to Assad's ears, but with Russian aircraft now dominating his war effort, he's in no position to do much about it.

And unsurprisingly, despite the clear inaccuracy of sensationalistic reports earlier this month about China joining Russia's air campaign in Syria, Beijing is quite interested in making some money rebuilding Assad's battered telecom infrastructure.

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