Mission accomplished: Russia to withdraw most of its forces from Syria

Russia will withdraw most of its forces from Syria in a surprise development that has possibly caught the West as off guard as the success of its air campaign earlier this year.

More than anything, this appears to be an indication of Moscow's confidence that the Syrian regime has been fundamentally secured in its core regions, with enough of a defensible buffer around it to ensure the failure of any further attempts to destroy it by force.

The political transition to be discussed at resumed peace talks must now proceed sooner rather than later, and removing the hammer of its air power is Russia's best way to compel Damascus to negotiate in good faith, offering carrots instead of wielding sticks; perhaps more to the point, it is proof of Russian genuineness towards the peace process and Syria's long-term stabilization, improving the Kremlin's standing with moderate Syrian opposition that will be key to any political track that doesn't see Assad's immediate departure.

ISIS and Al Nusra are now largely seen - correctly - as relatively minor nuisances that can be dealt with almost at leisure if only the Syrian state is somehow reconstituted in a more robust and survivable formulation, whether or not that involves federalism. The key is to get the government and the opposition to actually start talking, at least establishing that both sides want a lasting end to violence and a peaceful compromise to move the country forward, even if that means that vengeance against Assad will simply have to be forsaken. This is the best way to prolong Assad's current term while fleshing out how a new Syria will be rebuilt: by offering provisional but real local concessions to the opposition where feasible while forming a united front against the terror groups.

Of course, even after the withdrawal Russia will retain a tripwire that allows it to quickly relaunch a military campaign should the rebels betray their goodwill: should that happen, at least everyone will see that it's not because the Syrian government or the Axis of Fatima as a whole didn't honestly give peace a chance. What the rebels and their Saudi and Turkish sponsors gain through that kind of treachery will be little in comparison to the utter annihilation of whatever credibility and trust they still have with the West, whose concession on Assad's immediate abdication is already the big reason Russia's able to comfortably pull out now.