Tuesday, March 22, 2016

Brussels attacks present yet another opportunity for Axis of Fatima

With ISIS back in the spotlight on account of its terrorist attacks in Brussels, a renewed Western push for peace in Syria is likely. Both the Assad regime and the opposition have condemned the attacks, though the former seized another opportunity to bash the West for being too soft on extremism - read: continuing to not see Damascus as an ally in the war on terror.

Along these lines, both Syria and Russia are now playing up their campaign to retake Palmyra and other territory from ISIS, which bolsters the narrative that defeating ISIS means aligning with the legitimate government of Syria.

At least one clear-headed US analyst thinks that Russia has done Washington a favor by effectively containing ISIS in Syria at a time when it was politically impossible for Obama to do anything that would benefit Assad, even indirectly. This is in stark contrast to the popular neocon propaganda that neither Moscow nor Damascus really want to defeat ISIS, just because the "moderate" rebels - who are now exposed as having been dominated in key sectors by Al Qaeda affiliate Al Nusra Front - were until recently a more immediate threat to be rolled back. Of course, ISIS did opportunistically fill the vacuum in areas deserted by the rebels which weren't then occupied by pro-regime forces; but if anything, now that the clear majority of Russian airstrikes and Syrian ground operations are in fact against ISIS and Al Nusra, the West's democracy-peddling, imperialist war party's spin doctoring is much harder to sustain.

The Axis of Fatima now has another political and diplomatic opportunity to tweak the West to understanding the Syrian crisis through its own lens. With the Kurds formally demanding a federation in the north, they are less likely to act as Western and Gulf Sunni pawns to occupy ISIS's Syrian statelet before the regime recaptures it. In fact, they could well settle for a political accommodation, whereby Assad will recognize their new federation in exchange for the prerogative to take the lead against ISIS with Russian air cover. This would all but complete the reversal of any residual malignant designs against Syria that hardline elements in Western and regional capitals might still harbor.

In fact, while it's too early to be so optimistic with reasonable certainty, it's hard to not see how the US is falling more and more in line behind Russia on the Syrian question. Even if Mr. Assad has to get the glory for ridding the country of its half of the ISIS tumor, that's preferable to allowing it to remain. If anything, it will force us to ramp up our own efforts to remove the other half of the tumor in Iraq.

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