With reports coming that Kurdish forces have seized the crucial town of Al-Rifaat north of Aleppo en route to the Turkish border, the regime is close to securing its effective cutoff of the main supply line from Turkey for the rebels in and around Syria's embattled commercial hub.
The last few days have witnessed a worrying escalation of tensions between an increasingly desperate Turkey and the pro-Assad coalition led by Russia, with apparent clashes between Turkish artillery on Ankara's side of the border and both the Kurdish YPG militia and Syrian regular army threatening Azaz, the last major contested population center held by the rebels in Aleppo province, within easy range of the Turkish guns. Turkey has signaled it won't allow the YPG to occupy the town; Syria has understandably complained to the UN that the Turks have no business dictating what goes on within its legitimate territory. To drive home the point that Turkish provocations won't be unanswered, the Russians bombed two hospitals, one in Azaz and another in neighboring Idlib province, signaling they don't mind killing civilians, even children, to wipe out the militants' support infrastructure.
Significantly, Turkey has apparently reneged on its threats to invade Syria, as it's fairly obvious that neither it nor Saudi Arabia would dare such a move without US support - a virtual impossibility, given Washington's anxiousness to avoid a clash with Russia.
The calculus is quite simple: the recently floated 150,000-to-350,000-strong contingent of Sunni Muslim troops from a coalition of over 20 nations led by Saudi Arabia and Turkey would, if it enters Syria on the pretext of fighting ISIS but in reality to remove Assad, be warmly greeted by a barrage of Russian tactical nuclear weapons. An invasion staged from the NATO territory of Turkey with Western and US support means, well, World War III.
Last week there were reports of Russian-Saudi cooperation against ISIS without Assad's apparent approval; that appears farfetched now given that the Saudis must realize their only role in Syria would be to provide cannon fodder for ISIS to Putin and Assad's benefit.
Despite reports of Syrian army advances towards ISIS capital Raqqa, these moves appear more of a deterrence against Saudi and Turkish designs than a serious new effort against the caliphate. Riyadh and Ankara are put on notice: if you come in to get rid of ISIS, we'll be right there to make sure you get the hell out when you're done.
The key battle at this juncture is diplomatic: the Axis of Fatima must totally scupper Saudi and Turkish machinations to drag the West into war with Russia - the only hope now for these Sunni fundamentalist powers to rescue their dying geopolitical ambitions in the Levant.
But despite their brave talk, both Obama and Merkel are politically finished on this Syrian matter: they have no cards left to play. With a default position of non-confrontation with Putin, they're reduced to following and playing along no matter how repugnant it is to them.
Merkel especially is in terrible shape, as the EU threatens to ditch her leadership over the worsening refugee crisis. European public opinion is now decidedly pro-Russia and anti-Turkey, and will pressure her to ditch Ankara for Moscow. A growing chorus within Germany itself is calling for the end of the Ukraine sanctions, just as Ukraine itself is teetering on brink of collapse from the apparent failure of its reforms and real possibility of being cut off from its IMF bailout.
The endgame is in sight. Two basket-case petrodollar-based economies have teamed up to rescue a hollowed-out shell of a dictatorship from an opposing coalition with a combined GDP no less than 30 times bigger.
The Axis of Fatima is about to show the world that true strength is not to be found in the filth and decadence of the "free" world.
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