Syrian ceasefire largely holding, thank God

The temporary nationwide ceasefire in Syria has largely held for the third day - a surprising development to many observers.

Of course, there are the usual accusations of breaches by both sides, but it's pretty obvious that this stalemate disproportionately benefits the regime and the Russia-led Axis of Fatima's resolute and sincere effort to bring about a satisfactory and dignified end to the holocaust for all Syrians...so much so that active fighting elite Iranian troops are reportedly withdrawing from the country.

The increasingly desperate foreign-backed opposition is now seizing at any opportunity to make Russia and Assad look like the aggressors who have no intent to work for peace. Thus far, they aren't making much headway with an increasingly sobered international community (even the West).

Russia's position looks very good...those same idiotic, unrepentant voices clamoring for the US to undermine Moscow, like here and here, increasingly come off as the worst kind of warmongers - the suicidal kind.

Though the government has recaptured its supply line to Aleppo from ISIS for the second time since the Russian intervention, there's every reason to expect more nuisance attacks from both ISIS and Al Nusra that drain limited resources. The silver lining is that as the "moderate" opposition is increasingly marginalized on the battlefield and drawn into what can only be an Assad-led anti-terrorist coalition, worldwide attention will refocus on the long-delayed showdown between the regime and the actual terrorists, and increasingly jettison the fiction that they're somehow allies just because they've been partners of convenience when they both perceived the rebels to be the greater threat.

It may take a while, but the current nationwide ceasefire could be planting the seeds for localized truces such as those that have developed in the past half-year in regime-dominated areas of south-to-center-west Syria to spread up to northern sectors, i.e. in the embattled Aleppo province, as well. Such a drawing down of general hostilities will be seized by extremists, as in last week's horrendous suicide bombings in Homs and Damascus, to sow chaos and confusion, but this may well unify government and insurgent elements against a common enemy. After five years, just about everyone is tired of bloodshed and violence...accepting Assad's continued rule, especially in light of his potential flexibility during a political transition, will increasingly be seen as a small price to pay for longer stretches of tranquility and security; those who still don't want it are vengeful madmen who deserve to be exterminated.

Meanwhile, in another potential boost for the Axis of Fatima, Donald Trump looks set to win big on "Super Tuesday", much to the chagrin of the warmongering, democracy-spreading Republican establishment. At the moment, the latest controversy is his reluctance to condemn former KKK leader David Duke. But this is another attack that can backfire badly for the establishment: Mr. Duke has opposed an interventionist, nation-building foreign policy for years, railing at the entitlement Washington feels to be the world's cop; if nothing else, this dovish foreign policy is something that Mr. Trump can seize on to further sharpen the intensifying revolt against the Beltway's bankrupt global social engineering policies.

Endgame in sight: Axis of Fatima wins, feckless Western democracies lose

With reports coming that Kurdish forces have seized the crucial town of Al-Rifaat north of Aleppo en route to the Turkish border, the regime is close to securing its effective cutoff of the main supply line from Turkey for the rebels in and around Syria's embattled commercial hub.

The last few days have witnessed a worrying escalation of tensions between an increasingly desperate Turkey and the pro-Assad coalition led by Russia, with apparent clashes between Turkish artillery on Ankara's side of the border and both the Kurdish YPG militia and Syrian regular army threatening Azaz, the last major contested population center held by the rebels in Aleppo province, within easy range of the Turkish guns. Turkey has signaled it won't allow the YPG to occupy the town; Syria has understandably complained to the UN that the Turks have no business dictating what goes on within its legitimate territory. To drive home the point that Turkish provocations won't be unanswered, the Russians bombed two hospitals, one in Azaz and another in neighboring Idlib province, signaling they don't mind killing civilians, even children, to wipe out the militants' support infrastructure.

Significantly, Turkey has apparently reneged on its threats to invade Syria, as it's fairly obvious that neither it nor Saudi Arabia would dare such a move without US support - a virtual impossibility, given Washington's anxiousness to avoid a clash with Russia.

The calculus is quite simple: the recently floated 150,000-to-350,000-strong contingent of Sunni Muslim troops from a coalition of over 20 nations led by Saudi Arabia and Turkey would, if it enters Syria on the pretext of fighting ISIS but in reality to remove Assad, be warmly greeted by a barrage of Russian tactical nuclear weapons. An invasion staged from the NATO territory of Turkey with Western and US support means, well, World War III.

Last week there were reports of Russian-Saudi cooperation against ISIS without Assad's apparent approval; that appears farfetched now given that the Saudis must realize their only role in Syria would be to provide cannon fodder for ISIS to Putin and Assad's benefit.

Despite reports of Syrian army advances towards ISIS capital Raqqa, these moves appear more of a deterrence against Saudi and Turkish designs than a serious new effort against the caliphate. Riyadh and Ankara are put on notice: if you come in to get rid of ISIS, we'll be right there to make sure you get the hell out when you're done.

The key battle at this juncture is diplomatic: the Axis of Fatima must totally scupper Saudi and Turkish machinations to drag the West into war with Russia - the only hope now for these Sunni fundamentalist powers to rescue their dying geopolitical ambitions in the Levant.

But despite their brave talk, both Obama and Merkel are politically finished on this Syrian matter: they have no cards left to play. With a default position of non-confrontation with Putin, they're reduced to following and playing along no matter how repugnant it is to them.

Merkel especially is in terrible shape, as the EU threatens to ditch her leadership over the worsening refugee crisis. European public opinion is now decidedly pro-Russia and anti-Turkey, and will pressure her to ditch Ankara for Moscow. A growing chorus within Germany itself is calling for the end of the Ukraine sanctions, just as Ukraine itself is teetering on brink of collapse from the apparent failure of its reforms and real possibility of being cut off from its IMF bailout.

The endgame is in sight. Two basket-case petrodollar-based economies have teamed up to rescue a hollowed-out shell of a dictatorship from an opposing coalition with a combined GDP no less than 30 times bigger.

The Axis of Fatima is about to show the world that true strength is not to be found in the filth and decadence of the "free" world.

As Axis of Fatima advances, Russian moderation will be key to victory

The dramatic turn of the Syrian civil war in the regime's favor with the near-encirclement of Aleppo has increased the long-term prospects for peace, despite the standard stream of Western media propaganda continuing to portray Assad's army and Putin's air force as the bad guys.

Turkey's miscalculated adventure in northern Syria is drawing down to an ignominious close: as its remaining supply lines to the rebels in Aleppo and Idlib provinces are severed in the coming weeks by what's now a de facto tactical alliance between pro-government forces and the Kurdish YPG militia, it can only observe as the once-mighty militants it sponsored are slowly ground to pieces. It remains in no position to challenge ever-growing Russian air power, whose effectiveness has apparently increased both qualitatively and quantitatively in recent weeks to enable the unprecedented resurgence of the Syrian army and allied Iranian-led Shiite forces.

Aleppo's eventual fall, to be augmented by the likely fall of Idlib in the neighboring rebel hotbed province, will mark a decisive defeat for the entire non-ISIS anti-Assad insurgency. It will reduce the rebels to a motley collection of guerrilla bandits outside large population centers whose sole reason for attending future negotiations will be to cut the best amnesty deals they can as the only alternative to complete annihilation.

Perhaps even more significantly, the liberation of these urban areas will also conclusively shatter the fiction that any of them were anything other than petty fiefdoms run by jihadist thugs, as this report reveals even the Free Syrian Army (FSA) effectively administered its territory like a bunch of Taliban. As survivors of rebel occupation tell the world their tales of living under the yoke of takfiri executioners and express gratitude for the government's determination to rescue them, the regional Sunni powers whose dwindling stash of petrodollars has perpetuated this most insidious of distortions in the West will look like self-interested liars and hypocrites.

The Axis of Fatima is on its way to a historic victory that effectively ends nearly 14 centuries of Sunni domination of the heart of the Islamic world. Alas, human weakness and fallacy are likely to get the better of much of the Fatima coalition if things continue to go so well: both the Syrian regime and Iran will find it hard to resist arrogant score-settling as they expand and consolidate their control of rebel areas, thereby compromising the long-term stability and reintegration of these areas. Neither Damascus nor Tehran is likely to desire the degree of concessions to the Sunni majority that's prudent to maximize the chances of a peaceful reconstruction of the multi-sectarian society. Russia's moderating influence promises to be the key to securing the hard-fought gains; let's hope and pray that Mr. Putin and co. quickly translate military advantage to determined but pragmatic diplomatic initiative when the time is right - not only to restore Syria's integrity, but to lay the foundation of a whole new framework of regional stability and equilibrium.