Reports that Russia and France are coordinating their intensified air campaigns against ISIS, both in retaliation for the group's recent terrorist attacks against their citizens, have spurred speculation of broader East-West cooperation in defeating this common threat. CNBC has come out rather confident of the possibility; VICE News and CNN argue otherwise.
The other day, what appeared to be the biggest post-Soviet raid by Russian strategic bombers was conducted against ISIS with a go-ahead from US air command in Qatar; this was a day after President Hollande of France urged US-Russia cooperation against the rogue state. Reports have also surfaced of target intelligence sharing between the US-led and Russian air campaigns. While significant, these developments were actually already in the works before either last Friday's Paris attacks or the downed Russian jetliner at the end of last month; however, yesterday's official confirmation from the Kremlin that it was indeed a bomb that destroyed the jetliner was unsurprisingly the occasion for its massive heavy bomber strike.
Don't hold your breath just yet for any genuine US-Russian alliance against ISIS. No doubt both want ISIS punished for its transgressions from the air, but Moscow at this point is still 80 to 90 percent focused on weakening Al Nusra and other anti-Assad jihadists in the northwest of Syria; its attacks on ISIS may yet intensify, but it remains to be seen if these won't be primarily punitive and demonstrative as opposed to a precursor for a wider refocus of its attention against the group.
While one might argue that the Paris tragedy has strengthened Russian and Iranian leverage in Syria, it could also be said that Putin is now more flexible than ever regarding Assad's eventual fate. The key word is "eventual": the renewed Vienna peace talks over the weekend leave the next 6 to 24 months really up in the air in terms of just how much Assad will be involved in a post-ceasefire political transition.
As well, despite stronger calls for the EU to draw closer to Russia after Paris, it doesn't seem sufficient to end sanctions on Russia over Ukraine.
But probably even more crucial to the regional situation in the Mideast, though not much reported in the West, it seems Russia and Saudi Arabia are seriously considering a broader rapprochement. Such an accord has the potential to become the central pillar of Sunni-Shia peace in the region.
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