All key international stakeholders of the Syrian conflict finally met in Vienna earlier today, and that in itself was the biggest step forward to peace. Despite pledges to meet again in two weeks to begin discussing details of proposed ceasefires between the Assad regime and rebels seeking to overthrow it, neither side demonstrated willingness to compromise their polar opposite viewpoints as to the fate of Mr. Assad.
Most likely, this means both camps - the Axis of Fatima consisting of Russia, Iran, Iraq, and Assad on the one hand, versus the US, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and the Gulf monarchies on the other - will focus their efforts on improving their actual positions on the ground in the multi-front conflict, as Obama today approved the first detachment of US special forces to northeast Syria to help the Kurds against ISIS.
Since my last post on the military situation, it appears the rebels have swung the war back into effective stalemate: one report has them erasing all Syrian government gains since early this month in the crucial Hama province and threatening yet again to advance on Assad's core areas of control. This would be a stunning setback for Damascus considering a whole month now of heavy Russian air support.
In the meantime, the regime-controlled portion of Aleppo remains cut off by ISIS, even as Syrian army gains in the sector since mid-month were further confirmed.
These next two weeks before the Vienna powers reconvene will determine will be critical for Assad and Putin. If the Syrian military suffers additional setbacks, it will prove that even Russia can only hope, at best, to preserve a small Assad statelet around Damascus and the Mediterranean coast. Such an outcome would make Putin much more amenable to compelling Assad into negotiating with moderate opposition, including armed groups, on terms not to the latter's liking.
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