Friday, May 31, 2019

The Eight Capitalist Regimes (1770-2090): A Historical-Dialectical Theory

First Capitalist Regime: Revolution 
1770-1810 - From the American Revolution to the Napoleonic Wars
Emergence: 1770-1780; key events: American Revolution (1775-76), James Watt's steam engine
Breakout: 1780-1790; key events: US Constitution (1787), French Revolution (1789)
Zenith: 1790-1800; key events: George Washington's presidency (1789-97), French Reign of Terror (1793-94)
Maturity: 1800-1810; key events: Napoleon's rise (1800-05), Peninsular War (1808) and subsequent upheaval in Latin America

Second Capitalist Regime: Industrialization
1810-1850 - From the Napoleonic Wars to the Revolution of 1848
Emergence: 1810-1820; key events: War of 1812, Napoleon's defeat (1814-15)
Breakout: 1820-1830; key events: first commercial passenger railroad (1825)
Zenith: 1830-1840; key events: Second French Revolution (1830), Samuel Morse's invention of telegraph (1837)
Maturity: 1840-1850; key events: Mexican War (1846-48), repeal of Corn Laws (1846), Revolution of 1848

Third Capitalist Regime: Modernization
1850-1890 - From the Revolution of 1848 to the Closing of the American Frontier
Emergence: 1850-1860; key events: Great Compromise of 1850, first transatlantic telegraph (1858), Franco-Austrian War (1859) and Italian independence
Breakout: 1860-1870; key events: American Civil War (1861-65), Austro-Prussian (1866) and Franco-Prussian (1870) Wars, Meiji Restoration (1868), transcontinental railroad (1869)
Zenith: 1870-1880; key events: formation of Standard Oil Company (1870), Panic of 1873, end of Reconstruction (1877)
Maturity: 1880-1890; key events: Scramble for Africa (from 1885), Interstate Commerce Act (1887), Sherman Antitrust Act (1890)

Fourth Capitalist Regime: Progressivism
1890-1930 - From the Closing of the American Frontier to the Great Depression
Emergence: 1890-1900; key events: Panic of 1893, Spanish-American War (1898)
Breakout: 1900-1910; key events: Boxer Rebellion (1900), Russo-Japanese War (1905), creation of FDA (1906)
Zenith: 1910-1920; key events: World War I (1914-18), Russian Revolution (1917)
Maturity: 1920-1930; key events: League of Nations (1920), Fascism in Italy (1922), Stalin's rise to power (1924-28), Wall Street crash (1929)

Fifth Capitalist Regime: Keynes
1930-1970 - From the Great Depression to the Sino-Soviet Rift
Emergence: 1930-1940; key events: Smoot-Hawley Tariff (1931), Hitler's rise to power (1933), Social Security Act (1935), Stalin's Terror (1935-39), start of World War II (1937 in Asia, 1939 in Europe)
Breakout: 1940-1950; key events: World War II (thru 1945), Chinese Civil War (1945-49), start of Cold War (1949-50)
Zenith: 1950-1960; key events: Korean War (1950-53), hydrogen bomb (1952), Sputnik (1957)
Maturity: 1960-1970; key events: Berlin Wall (1961), Cuban Missile Crisis (1962), Vietnam War (from 1964), Cultural Revolution (from 1966), Sino-Soviet border war (1969), Moon landing (1969)

Sixth Capitalist Regime: Friedman
1970-2010 - From the Sino-Soviet Rift to the Eurozone Debt Crisis
Emergence: 1970-1980; key events: end of Bretton Woods (1971), Nixon's opening to China (1972), détente (from 1972), OPEC oil embargo (1973), Islamic Revolution in Iran (1979)
Breakout: 1980-1990; key events: Reagan Revolution (early 80s), Star Wars (1983), Plaza Accord (1985), Tiananmen Square (1989), fall of Communism in Eastern Europe (1989)
Zenith: 1990-2000; key events: fall of Soviet Union (1991), China trade opening (early 1990s), dot-com and hedge fund boom (late 1990s), Mideast peace process (from 1993)
Maturity: 2000-2010; key events: 9/11 attacks (2001), US invasion of Iraq (2003), global financial crisis (2008-09) and subsequent Eurozone sovereign debt contagion (2010)

Seventh Capitalist Regime: Chimerica (incipient)
2010-2050 - From the Eurozone Debt Crisis to the ??
Emergence: 2010-2020; key events: Fed QE (2010-12), China infrastructure boom (2010-2012), post-Arab spring (2011-12) Mideast upheaval (including ISIS), Russian seizure of Crimea (2014), Brexit and rise of Trump (2016), global trade war (2018-present)
Breakout: 2020-2030; TBD
Zenith: 2030-2040; TBD
Maturity: 2040-2050; TBD

Eighth Capitalist Regime: Fatima (proposed)
2050-2090 - From the ?? to the ??
Emergence: 2050-2060; TBD
Breakout: 2060-2070; TBD
Zenith: 2070-2080; TBD
Maturity: 2080-2090; TBD