Syria has liberated Palmyra from ISIS, restoring a gem of ancient civilization to its rightful owners in what's being acknowledged even by the pro-Western Syrian Observatory for Human Rights as the biggest defeat for ISIS since the declaration of its caliphate in Syria and Iraq in spring 2014.
That this archaeological crown of ancient Rome - and therefore, of ancient Western civilization - was delivered on Easter Sunday thanks largely to intensive air support from the great defender of Eastern Christianity (Russia) is a significant moral and morale boost to the Axis of Fatima, whose crusade to reestablish a multi-sectarian secular society in Syria is likely to not merely continue, but only accelerate onward to the next major objective, likely the lifting of the terror group's siege of Deir Ez-Zour.
Western silence, unsurprisingly, has been glaring - and quite revealing. As Putin congratulates Assad on Palmyra's recapture, the West might be moping even more about its failed "regime change" gambit.
A Syrian official suggests to American neo-nationalist website Breitbart that Washington actually has no choice now but to cooperate with Damascus to defeat and destroy ISIS within Syria.
But the US may now be more preoccupied with ISIS in Iraq, as the coalition operation to liberate Mosul gets underway (Iraq's second-largest city, whose fall in June 2014 heralded the caliphate's arrival as a significant territorial entity spanning the two countries).
Neither the Washington-led coalition in Iraq nor the Moscow-led alliance in Syria would want to get bogged down in their respective campaigns against ISIS while the other makes gains. This great power competition could be just what's needed to hasten the eventual reunification and reconstitution of both states.
Sunday, March 27, 2016
Tuesday, March 22, 2016
Brussels attacks present yet another opportunity for Axis of Fatima
With ISIS back in the spotlight on account of its terrorist attacks in Brussels, a renewed Western push for peace in Syria is likely. Both the Assad regime and the opposition have condemned the attacks, though the former seized another opportunity to bash the West for being too soft on extremism - read: continuing to not see Damascus as an ally in the war on terror.
Along these lines, both Syria and Russia are now playing up their campaign to retake Palmyra and other territory from ISIS, which bolsters the narrative that defeating ISIS means aligning with the legitimate government of Syria.
At least one clear-headed US analyst thinks that Russia has done Washington a favor by effectively containing ISIS in Syria at a time when it was politically impossible for Obama to do anything that would benefit Assad, even indirectly. This is in stark contrast to the popular neocon propaganda that neither Moscow nor Damascus really want to defeat ISIS, just because the "moderate" rebels - who are now exposed as having been dominated in key sectors by Al Qaeda affiliate Al Nusra Front - were until recently a more immediate threat to be rolled back. Of course, ISIS did opportunistically fill the vacuum in areas deserted by the rebels which weren't then occupied by pro-regime forces; but if anything, now that the clear majority of Russian airstrikes and Syrian ground operations are in fact against ISIS and Al Nusra, the West's democracy-peddling, imperialist war party's spin doctoring is much harder to sustain.
The Axis of Fatima now has another political and diplomatic opportunity to tweak the West to understanding the Syrian crisis through its own lens. With the Kurds formally demanding a federation in the north, they are less likely to act as Western and Gulf Sunni pawns to occupy ISIS's Syrian statelet before the regime recaptures it. In fact, they could well settle for a political accommodation, whereby Assad will recognize their new federation in exchange for the prerogative to take the lead against ISIS with Russian air cover. This would all but complete the reversal of any residual malignant designs against Syria that hardline elements in Western and regional capitals might still harbor.
In fact, while it's too early to be so optimistic with reasonable certainty, it's hard to not see how the US is falling more and more in line behind Russia on the Syrian question. Even if Mr. Assad has to get the glory for ridding the country of its half of the ISIS tumor, that's preferable to allowing it to remain. If anything, it will force us to ramp up our own efforts to remove the other half of the tumor in Iraq.
Along these lines, both Syria and Russia are now playing up their campaign to retake Palmyra and other territory from ISIS, which bolsters the narrative that defeating ISIS means aligning with the legitimate government of Syria.
At least one clear-headed US analyst thinks that Russia has done Washington a favor by effectively containing ISIS in Syria at a time when it was politically impossible for Obama to do anything that would benefit Assad, even indirectly. This is in stark contrast to the popular neocon propaganda that neither Moscow nor Damascus really want to defeat ISIS, just because the "moderate" rebels - who are now exposed as having been dominated in key sectors by Al Qaeda affiliate Al Nusra Front - were until recently a more immediate threat to be rolled back. Of course, ISIS did opportunistically fill the vacuum in areas deserted by the rebels which weren't then occupied by pro-regime forces; but if anything, now that the clear majority of Russian airstrikes and Syrian ground operations are in fact against ISIS and Al Nusra, the West's democracy-peddling, imperialist war party's spin doctoring is much harder to sustain.
The Axis of Fatima now has another political and diplomatic opportunity to tweak the West to understanding the Syrian crisis through its own lens. With the Kurds formally demanding a federation in the north, they are less likely to act as Western and Gulf Sunni pawns to occupy ISIS's Syrian statelet before the regime recaptures it. In fact, they could well settle for a political accommodation, whereby Assad will recognize their new federation in exchange for the prerogative to take the lead against ISIS with Russian air cover. This would all but complete the reversal of any residual malignant designs against Syria that hardline elements in Western and regional capitals might still harbor.
In fact, while it's too early to be so optimistic with reasonable certainty, it's hard to not see how the US is falling more and more in line behind Russia on the Syrian question. Even if Mr. Assad has to get the glory for ridding the country of its half of the ISIS tumor, that's preferable to allowing it to remain. If anything, it will force us to ramp up our own efforts to remove the other half of the tumor in Iraq.
Monday, March 14, 2016
Mission accomplished: Russia to withdraw most of its forces from Syria
Russia will withdraw most of its forces from Syria in a surprise development that has possibly caught the West as off guard as the success of its air campaign earlier this year.
More than anything, this appears to be an indication of Moscow's confidence that the Syrian regime has been fundamentally secured in its core regions, with enough of a defensible buffer around it to ensure the failure of any further attempts to destroy it by force.
The political transition to be discussed at resumed peace talks must now proceed sooner rather than later, and removing the hammer of its air power is Russia's best way to compel Damascus to negotiate in good faith, offering carrots instead of wielding sticks; perhaps more to the point, it is proof of Russian genuineness towards the peace process and Syria's long-term stabilization, improving the Kremlin's standing with moderate Syrian opposition that will be key to any political track that doesn't see Assad's immediate departure.
ISIS and Al Nusra are now largely seen - correctly - as relatively minor nuisances that can be dealt with almost at leisure if only the Syrian state is somehow reconstituted in a more robust and survivable formulation, whether or not that involves federalism. The key is to get the government and the opposition to actually start talking, at least establishing that both sides want a lasting end to violence and a peaceful compromise to move the country forward, even if that means that vengeance against Assad will simply have to be forsaken. This is the best way to prolong Assad's current term while fleshing out how a new Syria will be rebuilt: by offering provisional but real local concessions to the opposition where feasible while forming a united front against the terror groups.
Of course, even after the withdrawal Russia will retain a tripwire that allows it to quickly relaunch a military campaign should the rebels betray their goodwill: should that happen, at least everyone will see that it's not because the Syrian government or the Axis of Fatima as a whole didn't honestly give peace a chance. What the rebels and their Saudi and Turkish sponsors gain through that kind of treachery will be little in comparison to the utter annihilation of whatever credibility and trust they still have with the West, whose concession on Assad's immediate abdication is already the big reason Russia's able to comfortably pull out now.
More than anything, this appears to be an indication of Moscow's confidence that the Syrian regime has been fundamentally secured in its core regions, with enough of a defensible buffer around it to ensure the failure of any further attempts to destroy it by force.
The political transition to be discussed at resumed peace talks must now proceed sooner rather than later, and removing the hammer of its air power is Russia's best way to compel Damascus to negotiate in good faith, offering carrots instead of wielding sticks; perhaps more to the point, it is proof of Russian genuineness towards the peace process and Syria's long-term stabilization, improving the Kremlin's standing with moderate Syrian opposition that will be key to any political track that doesn't see Assad's immediate departure.
ISIS and Al Nusra are now largely seen - correctly - as relatively minor nuisances that can be dealt with almost at leisure if only the Syrian state is somehow reconstituted in a more robust and survivable formulation, whether or not that involves federalism. The key is to get the government and the opposition to actually start talking, at least establishing that both sides want a lasting end to violence and a peaceful compromise to move the country forward, even if that means that vengeance against Assad will simply have to be forsaken. This is the best way to prolong Assad's current term while fleshing out how a new Syria will be rebuilt: by offering provisional but real local concessions to the opposition where feasible while forming a united front against the terror groups.
Of course, even after the withdrawal Russia will retain a tripwire that allows it to quickly relaunch a military campaign should the rebels betray their goodwill: should that happen, at least everyone will see that it's not because the Syrian government or the Axis of Fatima as a whole didn't honestly give peace a chance. What the rebels and their Saudi and Turkish sponsors gain through that kind of treachery will be little in comparison to the utter annihilation of whatever credibility and trust they still have with the West, whose concession on Assad's immediate abdication is already the big reason Russia's able to comfortably pull out now.
Thursday, March 10, 2016
Syria inches closer to peace and reunification, despite naysayers
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